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Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak assumed office as British prime minister, he became the fifth consecutive British prime minister to take up the position over a six-year span.

Triggered in the UK by Brexit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So what term captures what is occurring in France, now on its sixth premier in two years – three of them in the last ten months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on that day, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in return for opposition Socialist votes as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not witnessed for decades – perhaps not since the start of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no easy escape.

Minority Rule

Essential context: from the moment Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament split into three warring blocs – left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the country faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now nearly double the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to approve a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be largely unchanged from before – he faced fury from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the next day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a respectful address, he cited political rigidity, saying “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

A further unexpected development: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a last-ditch effort to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it mildly, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the conclusion of his extension, he appeared on television to say he believed “a path still existed” to avoid elections. The leader's team confirmed the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron kept his promise – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the 39-year-old PM outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support no-confidence motions proposed against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the government should survive those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, by no means certain to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, similar to the Socialists, the right-leaning parties are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – some are still itching to topple it.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in two years is, like his predecessors, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by some miracle, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to pass a budget by year-end, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So is there a way out? Snap elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: polls suggest pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would still be no clear majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his replacement would disband the assembly and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that France’s voters, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not escape its predicament until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that clear majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Numerous observers believe that cultural shift will not be possible under the existing governmental framework. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the formation of ruling alliances common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”