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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

But the latest race is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime strugglers improving together. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still